Saturday, 2 May 2015

Deconstruction.

As I wrote earlier I will now reveal the final position for both The Safe Method & The Dangerous Method.

Before today things looked like this.

The Safe Method  -2.30 pt (This includes 1 pt Man Utd. @ 11-2 & 0.1 pt @ 8-1 to win the Premier League and 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10, 1.2 pts Middlesbrough @11-2 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)  

The Dangerous Method +3
.158 pts (This includes 2 pts Man Utd. @ 11-2 & 0.1 pt @ 8-1 to win the Premier League and 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10, 1.2 pts Middlesbrough @11-2 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)

First of all we have to take out the mathematical impossibility, that is Manchester United to win the Premier League.  Don't forget it has already gone into the P&L account as a loss when the bets were originally placed, which leaves things looking like this:

The Safe Method  -2.30 pt (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10, 1.2 pts Middlesbrough @11-2 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)  


The Dangerous Method +3
.158 pts (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10, 1.2 pts Middlesbrough @11-2 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)

Now we'll take out all the losing Norwich bets.  They ended up finishing 3rd but the bookies were only paying e.w. the first two by the time we placed the bets.

The Safe Method  -2.30 pt (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10, 1.2 pts Middlesbrough @11-2 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)  



The Dangerous Method +3
.158 pts (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10, 1.2 pts Middlesbrough @11-2 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)

Next to exit stage right pursued by a bear are the bets on Middlesbrough, who fizzled out towards the end.  I wouldn't want to be backing them to win the play-off final.

The Safe Method  -2.30 pt (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)  




The Dangerous Method +3
.158 pts (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)

Next out of the picture are Ipswich, who flattered to deceive around Christmas and ultimately fell over the line into the play-offs on goal difference.  Don't fancy them much either to be honest.

The Safe Method  -2.30 pt (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10 to win the Championship as lost money)  





The Dangerous Method +3
.158 pts (This includes 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1, 2 pts AFC Bournemouth  @17-10 win the Championship as lost money)

Now all the bets that are left are winners in one way shape or form.

Firstly the 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1.  Watford finished 2nd and the place part of that bet wins at 1/3rd the odds, returning 3.33 pts because the 1 pt stake was counted as lost money.

Next up 1pt Bournemouth to win the division @ 2-1 returns 3 pts for the same reason.

Finally 2 pts Bournemouth to win the division @ 17-10 returns 5.4 pts, ditto.

Total return for the season long bets 11.73 pts which now has to be added to each method, leaving the final standings for the season looking like this:

The Safe Method  +9.43 pts 

The Dangerous Method +14.888 pts 

The bookies are sensibly cutting the prices of selections when thetipper.co.uk advises you to bet on them.  Last night's baseball is a prime example.  This is another reason for starting a subscription service.  Free tips that the bookies can see with a click of the mouse lead to tighter prices.  Tips that are paid for by a relatively small number of punters means you can all get your money on at the advertised prices.

My last piece of free advice...for now...is,

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