Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Pear Shaped?

Tonight the fixture list looks as if it could completely scupper my predictions for the Championship.  However, although things might go horribly awry, tonight's disasters have already been factored into the equation, so I can tell you with complete conviction that all will be well.

Current standings 16.00 hrs BST 14th April 2015.

The Safe Method  -0.400 pts. (This includes 1 pt Man Utd. @ 11-2 & 0.1 pt @ 8-1 to win the Premier League and 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)  

The Dangerous Method +5
.058 pts (This includes 2 pts Man Utd. @ 11-2 & 0.1 pt @ 8-1 to win the Premier League and 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)

The stand out bet tonight looks to be Bournemouth to beat Reading for a whole host of reasons.  Firstly and most importantly they are a much better side and secondly they are in the hunt for the Championship title.  

Next up there is the tiny matter of Reading's FA Cup semi-final against Arsenal to consider.

Tonight's game, is not a game I'd want to be playing in if I were a Reading player.  Call me a coward if you want to, but I wouldn't want some stupid injury preventing me playing on Saturday. 

So I reckon Bournemouth's price should be a Celtic vs Forres Mechanics kind of 1-33 price and as it is, it actually looks like value at a positively generous 8-15.  Which means that you are advised for The Safe Method & The Dangerous Method to have a 1.5 pt win single on:

Bournemouth to beat Brighton @ 8-15 which is available with:  Coral Icon 50x28, Paddy Power, UK Sportsbook & totesport.com.  Score 1-0.  

You are also advised for both The Safe Method & The Dangerous Method to have a 0.1 pt patent on the following three games:

Bournemouth to beat Reading @ 8-15/ 8-15.  Score 1-0

Huddersfield to beat Brighton @ 11-4/11-4.  Score 0-0

Stevenage to beat Portsmouth @ 11-8/13-10.  Score 1-0

In black are the best prices, available with totesport.com.  In blue are  the prices the bet will be settled at, they are available with Paddy Power.

Total stake for:

The Safe Method   2.20 pts.  Return 3.03 pts.  Profit 0.83 pt.

The Dangerous Method  2.20 pts.  Return 3.03 pts.  Profit 0.83 pt.

Only The Curse Of The Championship Leaders Can Foil This One!

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