Tuesday, 21 April 2015

Clobbered!

Current standings 16.00 hrs BST 21st April 2015.

The Safe Method  -1.270 pt (This includes 1 pt Man Utd. @ 11-2 & 0.1 pt @ 8-1 to win the Premier League and 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)  

The Dangerous Method +4
.188 pts (This includes 2 pts Man Utd. @ 11-2 & 0.1 pt @ 8-1 to win the Premier League and 1 pt e.w. Watford @ 7-1, 0.5 pt e.w. Norwich @ 3-1, 1pt e.w. Norwich @ 5-1, 1 pt AFC Bournemouth @ 2-1 & 0.5 pt Ipswich @ 11-2 to win the Championship as lost money)

I got those three well and truly wrong.  They looked tricky and they were tricky.  The only positive to be taken from the weekend was that Watford now only have to win their two remaining games to lift the Championship trophy and get both methods well over the line...However, given that the top spot is an electrical model in a game of musical chairs...

Let's look at those bets a little bit closer.

For The Safe Method your profit and loss will currently be  -1.270 pts if you have been following every selection from the beginning of the 2014/15 season.

If Watford win the title your return will be 10.33 pts.  This will currently leave you with a total profit, for the season, of 9.06 pts.  4.06 pts more than the targeted figure of 5 pts.  So this means that we have 4.06 pts to play with on the Championship market for The Safe Method.

For The Dangerous Method your profit and loss will be +4.188 pts if you have been following every selection from the beginning of the 2014/15 season.

If Watford win the title your return will be 10.33 pts.  This will currently leave you with a total profit, for the season, of 14.521 pts.  4.521 pts more than the targeted figure of 10 pts.  So this means that we have 4.521 pts to play with on the Championship market for The Dangerous Method.

We are going to forget the e.w. bet on Norwich because they need two of the three sides above them to lose one or both of their remaining games to be able to finish in the top two.

If Bournemouth win the title and Watford finish 2nd the return is currently 5.333 pts.  Leaving us approximately 1pt short of the profit targets.

If Bournemouth win the title and Middlesbrough finish second the return will be 3 pts.
This will leave us approximately 3 pts short of the profit targets.

If Middlesbrough win the title and Bournemouth finish second there will be no return and we will be approximately 6 pts short of the profit targets.

They are the only plausible outcomes, so we need to cover the final three possibilities using the 4 pts available to us from the ideal result. The current best prices are:

Middlesbrough @11-2 available with  bet365 & Paddy Power

Bournemouth @ 17-10 available with Paddy Power

You are only advised to have the following bets if you have had the bets included in brackets above, placed earlier in the season.

For both The Safe Method & The Dangerous Method you are advised to have:

1.2 pts on Middlesbrough to win the 2014/15 Championship @ 11-2.
 2 pts on Bournemouth to win the 2014.15 Championship @ 17-10.

Both these bets will be included in the profit & loss figures as lost money.
                                                    --------

For the mid-week fixtures tonight you are advised for both The Safe Method & The Dangerous Method to have a 0.5 pt win double on:

Preston to beat Notts County @ 8-13.  Score 3-1.
                 &
Southend to beat Bury @ 23-10.  Score 1-0.

The best price for this double as of writing this is 4.35-1 available with totesport.com & .
                                                           --------

Total stake for The Safe Method 3.70 pts.  Return 2.67 pts.  Loss 1.03 pts

Total stake for The Dangerous Method  3.70 pts.  Return 2.67 pts.  Loss 1.03 pts

Come On Watford!



No comments:

Post a Comment

What is thetipper all about?

Our goal is to make you a profit from betting advice.

This website is a free resource for people who wish to bet on UK football matches.

WARNING! You should never gamble with money that you cannot afford. You accept that by using any of the methods outlined on this site that you may lose your starting bank. thetipper will not accept any liability for any losses, nor make any claim on your profits.

If your gambling is getting out of control you can get help from:
www.gamcare.org.uk

Followers

Follow us by email